Linear Estimates
An estimate tells the team how large an issue feels before anyone starts it. Estimates do not measure hours. They measure effort, complexity, and uncertainty together. Teams use them to decide how much work fits into a cycle.
Why Estimates Matter
Without estimates, ten small issues and ten giant issues look identical in a cycle. Estimates reveal the difference. A planner can see that a cycle holds 40 points of work when the team usually finishes 25.
Everyday Comparison
Think of packing boxes for a house move. A box of books feels heavy, a box of pillows feels light, and a box of glassware feels delicate. You do not weigh every box. You label them small, medium, or large, and you plan the truck load from those labels. Estimates work the same way.
Estimate Scales
Linear offers several scales. Each team picks one scale.
| Scale | Values | Best For |
|---|---|---|
| Exponential | 1, 2, 4, 8, 16 | Teams that want clear gaps between sizes |
| Fibonacci | 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13 | Teams familiar with agile planning |
| Linear | 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 | Teams that prefer simple counting |
| T-shirt | XS, S, M, L, XL | Teams new to estimating |
Widening gaps in the Exponential and Fibonacci scales reflect a fact about software work. Larger tasks carry more uncertainty, so precise differences between big sizes mean little.
Turn On Estimates
- Open Settings > Teams and select your team.
- Find the Estimates section.
- Choose a scale.
- Save the setting.
The estimate field now appears in the issue panel. Set a value by clicking the field or using the command menu.
Compare Two Issues
ISSUE A: Change button color Estimate: 1 ISSUE B: Add password reset by email Estimate: 5 ISSUE C: Build a new reporting engine Estimate: 16 → split into smaller issues Cycle capacity (last 3 cycles average): 24 points Planned work: A + B + two more 5-point issues = 16 points Room left: 8 points
Estimate as a Team
Pick a Reference Issue
Choose one finished issue everyone remembers and give it a value. Compare new issues against it. Statements like "this feels twice as large as the login fix" produce stable numbers.
Discuss Differences
When two people suggest very different values, ask each person to explain. The gap usually exposes a hidden assumption or a missing detail.
Split Large Issues
Break any issue above 8 points into smaller issues. Big estimates signal unclear scope.
Use Estimates in Cycles
Linear adds the estimates of completed issues and reports the total as velocity. Compare velocity across several cycles to find the team's typical capacity. Plan the next cycle near that number, not above it.
Mistakes to Avoid
- Converting points to hours. Points describe relative size, and hour conversion invites false precision.
- Comparing velocity between teams. Each team scales points differently.
- Re-estimating finished work. Past issues serve only as references.
- Estimating tiny chores. Skip estimates for work that takes minutes.
Estimating in Practice
Run a short estimation round during planning. Each person picks a value silently, and everyone reveals at the same moment. Silent choices prevent the loudest voice from anchoring the group. Discuss only the issues where values differ widely.
Handling Uncertainty
Unknown technology or unclear requirements raise estimates. Create a short research issue first, give it a small estimate, and re-estimate the main issue after the research ends.
Reviewing Accuracy
Check after each cycle whether finished issues matched their estimates. Look for patterns, such as design work that always runs larger than expected. Adjust future estimates based on what the data shows.